The market has gone nowhere since my return to positive on the market. Down 480 on the DJIA, today is interesting. Persistently weak sectors such as financials, Russell 2000 small caps, and the transports are not leading the market down. I believe this indicates this may be the last downward test for the market for the time being.
The farm bill passed by the U.S. Congress yesterday federally legalized a huge portion of the cannabinoid market - the portion that most interests a broad cross-section of consumer products companies. Hemp-derived CBD-based products are now legal nationwide.
The market has done a round-trip up and down since my last NOTE. The stand-out area among recommended issues was cloud/big-data. At the other end of the spectrum, oils - even our high-production-growth oils - lagged.
Now is the time that I would want a portfolio to be more-or-less fully-invested in equities [according to each portfolio’s normal definition of such a position]. If the market does go lower, I expect that the decline would mostly be felt by big, popular “tech” stocks whose future prospects are now gathering doubt.
Writing this midday with the S&P 500 down 21 at 2701, I have been contemplating whether to venture forth to make a fool of myself by putting in writing my best guess that this decline may be over. There are still more new lows by a fair percentage, but the absolute difference between new lows and highs is not huge and could flip.
The tone of the market has improved markedly in this last week. One has the sense that a more sustained rally will emerge soon - perhaps today, perhaps after a larger downdraft to recent lows.
There has been a very big improvement in the health of the market. Price weakness is less generalized throughout the market, but is now concentrated in the larger stocks that had obscured weakness previously.
It has been an interesting few days since late Wednesday afternoon. While there is clear improvement in indicators that had led to my notes of caution in early October, I do not know if the S&P500 goes still lower over the near-term, but I can say that many well-positioned companies are selling at attractive entry points.
Today marks the day that one should be fully taking advantage of lower prices in the market. The S&P 500 stands at 2677 as i write this; that is within the range that had been indicated as a target.
The large decline in markets this morning may well have put in the bottom of this correction in the markets in the U.S.